• Turkey’s drive for self-sufficiency in arms has brought about administrative, financial, political and military reforms designed to enable Turkey to remain a regional power capable of independent action outside its borders if it feels its national integrity is threatened.

• Turkey is the world’s fourth-largest importer of arms and the world’s 28th largest arms exporter. Turkey is aggressively seeking to increase its market share, expecting to increase its annual exports to $1.5 billion in the next three years. Turkey is also seeking to increase its share of domestically produced military equipment from the current 25 percent to 50 percent and its share of NATO projects from 4 percent to 20 percent by 2011.

• Turkey’s arms program is designed to address the armed forces’ requirements in two main areas: Conventional warfare in cooperation with its strategic allies in NATO and the new challenges posed by asymmetrical warfare (insurgencies, terrorism, guerrilla warfare, etc.).

• Turkey faces internal security threats from right-wing, left-wing, religious and ethno-nationalist extremists. These groups include the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), al-Qaeda, Turkish Hizbullah and the Great Eastern Islamic Raiders’ Front (IBDA-C).

• Turkey’s arms sector continues to be tightly controlled by the state, though procurement is jointly handled by civil and military authorities. Institutions like the Undersecretariat for Defense Industries (SSM) and the Turkish Armed Forces Foundation (TSKGV) have recourse to financing outside the state budget in their efforts to coordinate the activities of Turkish defense industries with Turkish military requirements and encourage the development of new enterprises and technology.

• Licensed production and joint projects are seen as stepping stones to eventual Turkish independence and self-sufficiency in arms production. To this end, technology transfer plays a critical part in the awarding of foreign arms and equipment contracts.

• Foreign debate on issues like the alleged Armenian genocide of World War I and Turkish methods in repressing militant Kurdish separatism have come to influence the award of arms contracts. Turkey has begun to look further afield for nations that are willing to meet its military needs without feeling the need to become involved in internal political or historical issues.

• Intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and information management are viewed as the keys to military success in the 21st century, especially in meeting the challenge of asymmetrical threats.

• The Turkish defense establishment is pushing the Turkish arms industry in the direction of independent production of high-tech weapons. Mastering these technologies will allow Turkey to expand its export market, which will in turn help finance arms production for Turkey’s internal needs.

Presenter: Dr. Andrew McGregor, Director Aberfoyle International Security

Commenter: Dr. Cinar Ozen Associate Professor Gazi University, Ankara

Located at the strategic crossroads of Europe, Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East, Turkey has long maintained one of the world’s largest conventional armies. Today Turkey is facing new challenges in the rapidly developing field of asymmetric warfare, described by one senior general as a means “used by the weak to confront the strong or between even powers to defeat one another basing their actions on difference and superiority.” To confront these challenges Turkey’s military is undergoing radical reforms designed to provide a smaller, better equipped, more flexible and more professional armed forces. In addition there is an emphasis on intelligence gathering and cooperation with both new and traditional allies. A key element of these reforms is the development of an indigenous arms industry that will make Turkey’s military self-reliant and fully capable of providing the armed forces with the means of countering threats from terrorist and guerrilla formations in the 21st century.

Dr. Andrew McGregor is Director of Aberfoyle International Security, a Toronto-based agency specializing in security issues related to the Islamic world. He received a Ph.D. from the University of Toronto’s Department of Near and Middle Eastern Civilizations in 2000, and is a former Research Associate of the Canadian Institute of International Affairs. In October 2007 he took over as editor of the Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Focus and Terrorism Monitor publications. He is the author of an archaeological history of Darfur published by Cambridge University in 2001 and publishes frequently on international security issues. His latest book is A Military History of Modern Egypt, published by Praeger Security International in 2006. Dr. McGregor provides commentary on military and security issues for newspapers (including the New York Times and Financial Times), as well as making frequent appearances on radio (CBC Radio, VOA, Radio Canada International) and television (CBC Newsworld, CTV Newsnet, and others). Dr. Cinar Ozen is Associate Professor at Gazi University in the Department of International Relations. He received his Ph.D., titled “Analysis of Turkey-EU relations from the framework of Neo-functionalist Theory,” from Gazi University in 1988. He also has a BA in International Relations from Ankara University, Faculty of Political Sciences, and masters degrees in International Relations from Gazi University and European Studies from the Université de Genève. Dr. Ozen is an academic adviser for the Center of Excellence – Defence Against Terrorism (COE-DAT) and external specialist for the Turkish General Staff Center for Strategic Studies. Between 2001 and 2005, he worked as a faculty member at the Izmir University of Economics in the Department of International Relations and the EU. His academic research interests include European security, Turkish foreign policy and counter-terrorism. He has published articles and book chapters, as well as supervised MA and Ph.D. dissertations on these subjects.

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Introduction: Glen Howard President The Jamestown Foundation

Presenter: Stephen Ulph Senior Fellow The Jamestown Foundation 

The jihadist ideology of al-Qaeda has been under the spotlight lately, with criticisms leveled at its doctrinal propriety from influential figures in the movement. Is this evidence of ideological implosion? Can its doctrinal ambiguities be exploited? Or does the resilience of al-Qaeda and jihadism have stronger and broader roots? If the ideological front in the War on Terror is to get up to speed, counter-terrorism will have to resolve the ambiguities in its own perception of the threat.

Stephen Ulph is one of the preeminent analysts of the Islamic world, specializing in the economic and political developments of the Middle East and North Africa. He is the author of the forthcoming book Jihad on the Internet: The Virtual Battlefield. Mr. Ulph is the founder and editor of the Terrorism Security Monitor and editor and analyst of Islamic Affairs for Jane's Information Group. He is a Senior Fellow with The Jamestown Foundation.

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Reservations are required. Please e-mail your name and affiliation to: rsvp-june12@jamestown.org.